SNP Surge 'Is Real', Says Pollster Lord Ashcroft

Pollster Lord Ashcroft has told Sky News in a rare interview that the surge in support for the SNP in Scotland "is real".

It comes a day after a Sky News projection said the nationalist party could increase its number of seats at the General Election from its current six to 53.

The polling also suggested there would be a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party ahead of the Conservatives, and the SNP could hold the balance of power on 8 May.

Based on Sky's forecast, Labour and the SNP could form a 'tartan coalition'

Lord Ashcroft pointed to last year's Scottish independence referendum, where the SNP picked up 45% of the votes, as evidence of the surge.

He said: "You could say if you voted yes to independence why now wouldn't you vote for the SNP in the Westminster parliament."

Video: Projection Suggests Hung Parliament

The former Tory party treasurer suggested the political centre of gravity in Scotland was more to the left.

He went on: "Who do you want to represent you - Labour who you are not quite sure where they stand on the Scottish issue.

"Or the SNP who you do know where they stand for on Scotland. Therefore one would expect a surge for the SNP."

Lord Ashcroft is currently polling Scottish seats for the first time and the results will be published within days.

The findings may not make happy reading for Labour in Scotland.

Video: PM Defends Economic Record

He believed the May election was "finely balanced", adding "the concern seems be running that we are in for a hung parliament."

He admitted the "pendulum" was slightly towards Labour leader Ed Miliband over Tory Prime Minister David Cameron but cautioned that there was "such volatility" that that could change at any time.

The rise of Nigel Farage's UKIP was down to both the "arrogance of the Conservatives and the complacency of Labour", according to the peer.

He added: "This was something waiting to happen.

"Quite clearly with the Liberal Democrats going into coalition, you cannot be a protest party in government and expect to come out at the other end of the tunnel the same shape you went into it."

Video: Miliband Makes NHS His Battleground

He said that "fragmentation" was the price that the Lib Dems - whose support has slumped - have paid for being in the coalition.

He also argued that for UKIP, a Miliband election win could be the best result for their long-term interests.

Britain may not get a EU referendum under the Labour leader which would give UKIP another five years in which to build their party where they still have Europe as the "bogey" to go for, he claimed.

Lord Ashcroft said "disillusionment" with the two main parties meant they were polling around 60% of the vote, compared with about 90% around 20 years ago.

But he warned that with the rise of the smaller parties, it was mathematically possible for a party to have an overall majority at the election with a national share of the vote in the 20s.

Video: In The Margins

He said if that happened there would be pressure to look at whether 'first-past-the-post' was the appropriate system of government in the UK.

:: Sky looks at the 150 seats that could play a deciding role in May's General Election. Click here for the In The Margins console.

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Fears For Four Crew On Vessel Lost At Sea

A rescue operation for a fishing boat with four crew aboard which went missing in the Channel in "very challenging" conditions has been suspended.

The RNLI said it would make a decision on resuming the search this morning.

It is believed the vessel's communications failed after the boat encountered rough seas and gale-force winds on Wednesday afternoon.

A Coastguard Rescue helicopter is scouring an area in the southeast of the English Channel, along with two all-weather lifeboats and a French search and rescue helicopter.

"The coastguard has notified other vessels in the surrounding area to remain vigilant and contact them if they locate anything," a spokesman for the Maritime and Coastguard Agency added.

The 40m long fishing trawler, a Belgian vessel with a Dutch skipper, was last reported at a location approximately 10 miles from Dungeness on the Kent coast.

"It is a very large search area. The two lifeboats are operating eight miles apart. With no sightings, one does fear the worst," said RNLI spokesman Tim Ash.

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'Thundersnow' Storms As Icy Blast Hits UK

Parts of England are being battered by "thundersnow" storms as the winter weather continues to bite across Britain.

Met Office forecaster Simon Partridge said: "We have got snow falling in a number of areas in the North and West, including thunderstorms.

"There is thundersnow to the north of Manchester - these are normal thunderstorms but with snow rather than rain."

Main roads in Durham and Yorkshire are among those closed because of the weather and more than a dozen rail services between Manchester and York have been cancelled, as northern England is hit by the storms this morning.

The weather will turn slightly milder on Friday

Phil Verster, route managing director for Network Rail, advised train passengers to check before they travel.

A "handful" of planes at Manchester Airport were forced to circle before landing while one of their two runways was cleared of snow, an airport spokesman said.

Sky News forecaster Isobel Lang said today would see frequent snow showers in Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern parts of Ireland and in northern England.

She added: "The strong winds will blow the snow around, making driving dangerous.

The Met Office has issued warnings across the country

"During this evening and tonight the showers will ease, it will turn slightly less cold, with the showers turning more to sleet or rain later. It may still be icy."

Cold blasts from Greenland and Iceland will cause temperatures to drop to around 2-3C (36-37F) in the North and 4-5C (39-41F) in the South. It will become slightly milder by Friday, reaching 7C (45F) in the South.

The Met Office has issued an amber "be prepared" warning for snow, which covers huge parts of Britain from Liverpool Bay to the Humber to the western side of the Welsh mountains.

Snow in Hartlepool on Wednesday night

Up to 15cm (6in) of snow is expected to fall in parts of the North tonight and there is also snow expected during the morning rush hour in the Northwest, on the M6 north of Cheshire, Scotland and Greater London.

In Scotland, forecasters said more than 5cm (2in) could accumulate at lower levels by this morning, with more than 15cm on high ground, making conditions treacherous for drivers.

Darron Burness, head of the AA's severe weather team, said motorists should prepare by clearing snow and ice from car windows, lights and the roof before driving.

"The wind will also make it feel bitterly cold, so at the very least take lots of warm layers, fully-charged mobile, road atlas, and make sure your car has at least a quarter of a tank of fuel in case of unexpected delays," he said.

Drivers Have Been Warned To Take Care On Roads

RAC spokesman Simon Williams added: "The message to drivers is to plan ahead - perform some quick and easy checks on the condition of your vehicle, such as tyres and windscreen wipers, as soon as possible."

Dr Angie Bone, head of extreme events at Public Health England, said people should dress in lots of thin layers and wear shoes with good slip-resistant grip when going outside.

She also encouraged people to check on friends and family, especially the elderly, very young or those with health conditions.

An Arctic blast is also expected to bring a fresh wave of snow and freezing temperatures over the weekend.

The Met Office has issued snow warnings for then, predicting snow in the north of Scotland and Northern Ireland on Saturday, and spreading down both sides of the UK on Sunday, hitting western Wales, southwest England, East Anglia and the east coast of England.

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Campaigners Step Up Fight Against Fracking

By Enda Brady, Sky News Correspondent

Anti-fracking campaigners are calling on the Government to listen to concerns over environmental risks and climate change associated with the controversial technique, highlighted in a new report published today.

The cross-party Environmental Audit Committee warned that extensive production of unconventional shale gas, extracted by fracking or fracturing the rock with high-pressured jets of water and chemicals, is not compatible with the UK's goals to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The Committee has called for a moratorium on fracking and for it to be "prohibited outright" in protected areas such as national parks, areas of outstanding natural beauty and ancient woodlands.

The report was welcomed by campaign groups fighting against fracking.

"It's critical that Westminster acts upon the wishes of the people who voted them in," Matt Bryan from Frack Free Dee told Sky News from their protest camp at Upton, near Chester.

Video: Bianca Jagger Debates Fracking

"The evidence is clear and it's substantiated and politicians need to start listening to the evidence that's on the table and not the evidence that's pushed for a corporate agenda."

The Government has said it is going "all out" for developing a shale industry in the UK, claiming it would create jobs and growth, not to mention much-needed energy.

"We have one of the most robust regulatory regimes for shale gas," said a statement from the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

"UK shale development is compatible with our goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions and does not detract from our support for renewables."

Government adviser Professor Peter Styles added: "It's fairly understandable that nobody actually wants any disruption near their house, but I will ask them if you are not prepared to engage in the process of providing energy are you entitled to engage in the process of consuming it?"

Supporters of exploiting the unconventional gas also claim it could be a "transition" fuel helping move the UK from the most polluting fossil fuel, coal, towards a cleaner energy supply.

But the committee's chairwoman, Labour MP Joan Walley, said fracking could not be compatible with long-term commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions unless full-scale technology which captures and permanently stores carbon was rolled out rapidly - something which looked unlikely.

"There are also huge uncertainties around the impact that fracking could have on water supplies, air quality and public health," she said.

"We cannot allow Britain's national parks and areas of outstanding natural beauty to be developed into oil and gas fields."

The report is published ahead of MPs debating and voting on the Infrastructure Bill, which includes measures to make it easier for energy companies to drill under people's homes without their permission and allows them to leave "any substance" deep underground.

To coincide with the final debate of the bill, which has seen a number of amendments on fracking tabled, a protest will be held outside Parliament, with speeches by Vivienne Westwood, Bianca Jagger, and former UK climate envoy John Ashton.

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NHS Vaccine Delay 'Needlessly' Killing Babies

By Siobhan Robbins, West of England Correspondent

Children are dying needlessly because of a delay in rolling out the meningitis B vaccine in the UK, a campaign group has claimed.

The vaccination was given its EU licence two years ago in 2013, but Meningitis Now says the delay in offering the immunisation to every baby on the NHS is putting lives at risk.

Figures obtained by the campaign group suggest 24 UK children under the age of one could have died from the disease since the vaccine was approved in 2013. Since that time there have been 1,130 cases of the infection.

Meningitis Now founder Steve Dayman said: "Too many of our children are needlessly dying or left disabled due to lethargic bureaucracy."

Since 2013 there have been 1,130 UK cases of the disease

Caroline Williams, from South East Wales, lost her one-year-old son Caden to meningitis B. He died a year after the immunisation had received EU approval.

Ms Williams told Sky News the Government was risking other children's lives by not adding the jab to the NHS baby immunisation programme.

Video: Meningitis Awareness

She said: "The amount of children that could be saved with this vaccine is unbelievable. I know meningitis doesn't just affect babies but it could be saving children's lives and they're still negotiating over price, they're putting a price on children's lives."

The meningitis B vaccine is available on the NHS for groups at increased risk of invasive meningococcal infection, such as children without a spleen, and can be bought privately.

The Department of Health told Sky News the number of cases of the disease has dropped over the last decade.

Video: Brave Tommy Can Still Smile

In a statement, a spokesperson said: "We are very clear that we want to see this vaccine introduced as soon as possible to help protect children from this devastating disease.

"The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation recommended that a MenB vaccine be introduced, but only at a cost-effective price - below the price published by Novartis.

"We need to make sure NHS funds are used effectively and negotiations are continuing."

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Hoax Caller Was Drunk And On Drugs - Report

Security procedures are under review after hoax calls were made to GCHQ, during which a number for the eavesdropping agency's boss was disclosed, and to Downing Street, which connected the caller to David Cameron.

The Prime Minister ended the call when it became clear it was a prank, and Downing Street said no sensitive information was disclosed.

A review into the breach is under way at both Number 10 and GCHQ, where a mobile phone number for director Robert Hannigan was revealed to the caller.

A Government spokesman said: "Following two hoax calls to Government departments today, a notice has gone out to all departments to be on the alert for such calls.

The GCHQ headquarters in Cheltenham

"In the first instance, a call was made to GCHQ which resulted in the disclosure of a mobile phone number for the director.

"The mobile phone number provided is never used for calls involving classified information.

"In the second instance, a hoax caller claiming to be the GCHQ director was connected to the Prime Minister.

"Both GCHQ and Number 10 take security seriously and both are currently reviewing procedures following these hoax calls to ensure that the Government learns any lessons from this incident."

It is not known if the same person was behind both hoaxes, but a man claiming responsibility for the call to GCHQ described his actions to The Sun newspaper.

He claimed he was high on drink and drugs at the time and said the situation was "hilarious".

"I've just made complete monkeys out of GCHQ. I've got the mobile number of the director," he told the paper.

"What's more, I am off my face on booze and cocaine."

He added: "I'm definitely going to do it again. It was so easy."

The paper reported that the man telephoned Mr Hannigan claiming to be an ITN journalist, but said the director was suspicious and ended the call.

The mobile phone number for Mr Hannigan is understood to be for an unclassified phone, rather than one of the secure lines used for sensitive communications.

The call to Mr Cameron was made to an official mobile, but the conversation was understood to have been "quite brief".

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Crackdown On Prisoners Caught With 'Legal Highs'

By Anushka Asthana, Political Correspondent

Prisoners caught using so-called "legal highs" will face tougher penalties following a huge increase in the use of the drugs inside jails.

Justice Secretary Chris Grayling has warned that the trend could be driving a spike in violence among inmates, which has resulted in prison staff being injured.

Mr Grayling told Sky News that he wanted to make sure that when legal highs were found in prisons, it was treated as seriously as if it were heroin. 

It comes alongside figures that show a 27-fold increase in seizures of these "new psychoactive substances" in prisons, from just 16 in 2010 to 436 in 2014.

Under the new crackdown offenders could face prosecution, have their jail sentences extended by up to 42 days, be segregated from other prisoners, confined to their cells for 21 days, placed in higher security prisons or banned from any physical contact with visitors.

Video: Legal Highs 'Deadlier Than Heroin'

The new powers will be outlined in guidance sent to prison governors in England and Wales this week by the Ministry of Justice.

It comes as Sky News obtained exclusive access to HMP Ranby in Nottinghamshire during a major operation that saw 60 National Crime Agency officers and extra police drafted into the prison to try to tackle the problem.

Dawn raids were carried out on cells, while every vehicle and person entering the site was searched.

Sniffer dogs were used in the operation, which uncovered a number of packages of "legal highs", alongside smaller amounts of cannabis, mobile phones and weapons.

Video: Legal Highs Warning

Staff told Sky News that there had been a large rise in the use of legal highs, with inmates acting erratically and violently when high.

One prison officer described prisoners as displaying "incredible amounts of strength" and "aggression" after taking the drugs – which can be smuggled in by visitors or even thrown over the walls.

The prison governor, Susan Howard, said the operation had focused on legal highs because of concerns about the effects.

She said it was not just the risk to her staff, but also to the prisoners themselves who could suffer raised heartbeats, strokes or even put themselves at danger of death.

Video: Britain: A Legal High 'Hub'

"A tiny amount of this could have catastrophic effects," she said, pointing to seized drugs, which are known by street names such as "Spice" and "Black Mamba".

Mr Grayling described the drug abuse as a "new phenomenon".

He added: "What we're also hearing is that these substances seem to be part of the problem around increasing violence in our prison estate.

"No one should be under any illusion how dangerous the abuse of any drug is. We are determined to make sure governors have every power at their disposal to detect supply, punish those found using or dealing, and enforce a zero tolerance approach."

Video: Campaign Warns Over Legal Highs

The drugs are popular because they are difficult to detect as they are odourless and sniffer dogs have not been trained up to identify them.

Under the plans dozens of specialist dog teams will undergo training to search for these synthetic drugs.

A new project will also mean 10,000 urine samples will be tested for them in 10 prisons in northwest England. 

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Recovered Ebola Nurse 'Happy To Be Alive'

A nurse infected with Ebola while working in Sierra Leone has said she is "happy to be alive" as she left hospital after making a full recovery.

Pauline Cafferkey is now free of the deadly virus after more than three weeks in a specialist isolation unit, where for a time she was critically ill.

She admitted she still felt "quite weak", but said she was looking forward to going home.

She also thanked staff at the Royal Free Hospital in London, whom she credited with saving her life.

Ms Cafferkey was diagnosed with Ebola after returning to Glasgow and was initially admitted to the city's Gartnavel Hospital on 29 December, before being transferred to the Royal Free the following day.

Video: Ebola Nurse Leaves Hospital

The nurse, from Cambuslang in South Lanarkshire, had volunteered with Save The Children at the Ebola Treatment Centre in Kerry Town before returning to the UK.

Ms Cafferkey, who was discharged from hospital on Saturday, said: "I am just happy to be alive. I still don't feel 100%, I feel quite weak, but I'm looking forward to going home.

"I want to say a big thank you to the staff who treated me - they were amazing. They were always very reassuring and I knew I was in the best hands.

Video: Ebola Nurse Flies To Sierra Leone

"They saved my life."

Ms Cafferkey was treated in the hospital's high level isolation unit (HLIU) for more than three weeks.

She said listening to music and having "lots of Irn-Bru" had helped in her recovery.

Video: Ebola Nurse Being Treated In London

While in hospital she was under the care of the infectious diseases team, led by Dr Michael Jacobs.

He said: "We are delighted that Pauline has recovered and is now well enough to go home. I am very proud of the staff who have been caring for her.

"It is because of the skill and hard work of the entire team that she is now able to go home."

Video: How Ebola Attacks The Human Body

Save The Children has launched an investigation into how Ms Cafferkey was infected, but admits it may never establish the exact circumstances.

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said: "I am delighted that Pauline Cafferkey has been discharged from hospital and can now return home.

"Her selflessness and courage are remarkable and she represents the very best of NHS values.

Video: Ebola: Busting The Myths

"I would like to thank all the staff at the Royal Free who have worked tirelessly to provide her with world class care and treatment."

Prime Minister David Cameron added: "It's great to see Pauline Cafferkey looking so well after her battle with Ebola. She's been extraordinarily brave."

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Social Media Campaign To Fight Cervical Cancer

By Charlotte Lomas, Sky News Reporter

The UK's only dedicated cervical cancer charity is launching a social media campaign to highlight the importance of smear tests as figures show cases of the cancer in young women are on the rise.

Figures from the Office of National Statistics show cases of cervical cancer in women aged under 35 are up almost 4% on 2014 and 33% on 10 years ago.

One in three young women fail to attend screenings, either because they are embarrassed, because they are concerned it will be painful or they are simply too busy.

Figures show that one in five think the test is unnecessary.

Samantha Ransom put off going to have her first smear test for eight months.

Video: Cancer Victim Inspires Age Campaign

When she finally had it done she found out she had grade two cervical cancer and she was four months pregnant with her first child.

She was advised to terminate her baby as she needed intense treatment including radio and chemotherapy to rid her of her cancer.

Ms Ransom said: "I was devastated. It was the worst thing you can imagine.

"The doctors wanted to make sure I was fine and cancer free so they said it was my option but they thought a termination would be better."

After undergoing treatment, Ms Ransom had part of her cervix removed and her ovaries raised higher in an attempt to save them from the effects of radiotherapy.

Video: On-The-Spot Smear Tests Urged

However this was unsuccessful and she is now unable to have children.

She wants to make sure young women are aware of the importance of smear tests and don't leave it too late.

She said: "Don't leave that letter lying on the side. Book an appointment ASAP. It's not as uncomfortable as everyone thinks it is."

Launched at the start of Cervical Cancer Prevention Week, Jo's Cervical Cancer Trust is asking the public to join #SmearForSmear - a social media campaign which aims to draw attention to the importance of smear tests and stop the rise in numbers of women diagnosed with the disease.

The director of the charity, Robert Music, said: "It's a really important opportunity to raise awareness that cervical cancer is largely preventable.

Video: Cervical Tests: 'Jade Effect' Fades

"But we need to increase the number of women attending cervical screening or young girls getting the HPV vaccine."

Since 2008 young girls have been offered a vaccine against the Human Papilloma Virus (HPV). This is a virus that can cause cervical cancer.

But medical experts warn that this doesn't mean they're fully protected.

Gynaecological oncologist Adeola Olaitan said: "The HPV vaccine protects against two of the viruses that cause 70% of cervical cancer.

"However it doesn't give 100% protection so it is important these women still go for smear tests when they are called."  

Video: Skipped Cervical Tests 'Risk Lives'

More than one million women failed to attend their smear test appointment last year.

It's hoped this new campaign will change that and make women realise that cervical cancer is one of the only cancers that is preventable.

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Man Arrested Over Missing Woman In Dorset

Police have arrested a 27-year-old man on suspicion of murder following the disappearance of a woman in Dorset.

Dorset Police say they hold "grave concerns" for 25-year-old Samantha Henderson, who was reported missing on Thursday.

The man from the village of Corfe Castle in Wareham is currently being questioned by police.

Investigations are continuing, including a forensic examination of Ms Henderson's home.

"Sadly, our concerns for Samantha are so grave that we have arrested a 27-year-old man on suspicion of her murder," said Detective Inspector Neil Devoto.

"However, we do not know at this time her whereabouts.

"Officers have been carrying extensive enquiries in the area and... further searches have been made near to where Samantha was last seen.

"Our investigations are focused on establishing exactly what has happened to Samantha between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning.

"I would ask anyone who has seen or heard from Samantha since Wednesday afternoon to contact us.

"We strongly believe that Samantha may have come to harm and I would like to hear from anyone who we haven't spoken to already and who may have information that could assist us."

Ms Henderson is described as white, five foot three inches tall, with a slim build and blonde hair.

She was last seen wearing a grey jumper, blue jeans and slippers.

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