Did Anyone Care About Police Elections?
Updated: 7:39pm UK, Friday 16 November 2012
By Adam Boulton, Political Editor
The most memorable thing about these elections in England and Wales (but not London) is that not many voters cared about them.
Turnouts in the first ever Police and Crime Commissioner polls were an all-time low for a national election, averaging less than one in five and falling as low as 12% in some areas.
In Newport, one polling station went all day without a visitor. The turnout in the parliamentary election in Manchester Central of just 18.1% was an all-time low for a by-election to choose an MP.
The Electoral Commission and the Electoral Reform Society have criticised the government for ignoring advice and staging the elections for the unfamiliar police commissioners in the dark and cold days of mid-November.
The Prime Minister brushed aside such criticisms pointing out that there are now 41 elected officials with a direct mandate to supervise local police forces where before there were none.
Mr Cameron predicted that when these elections are next held turnout will go up - a near certainty since they are likely next time to be simultaneous with council elections.
But in truth, such niggles are the least of the headaches which these elections have given David Cameron and Nick Clegg. The coalition parties fared dismally in the three parliamentary by-elections which took place this week.
In Cardiff South and Manchester Central two veteran MPs - Alun Michael and Tony Lloyd - slipped out of their parliamentary seats smoothly, to be elected as Police Commissioners in their areas. Labour comfortably held the safe seats they left behind.
But in the weathervane parliamentary constituency of Corby, where shooting star Tory MP Louise Mensch quit to spend more time with her family in New York, the Conservatives were soundly punished.
A swing of 12.67% from blue to red, handed Labour its first by-election victory over the Tories for 15 years – a time when Tony Blair was cruising towards his first landslide General Election victory.
The Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps MP blamed the Mensch factor and claimed that there had been much bigger by-election swings in the past.
That is certainly true but not much comfort for him. Fed into a national trend, a Corby-type swing would see Prime Minister Ed Miliband in Number Ten presiding over a Labour majority of more than 100.
Corby's message to the Deputy Prime Minister was even starker. The Liberal Democrats were forced into fourth place by UKIP, and lost their deposit in spite of demanding two recounts. Across the country in the police elections the party fared little better.
Visiting Corby for a victory parade, Mr Miliband was quick to stress that he has much work still to do. But he claimed that Middle England is "putting its trust in a One Nation Labour Party" because it feels let down by David Cameron and the Conservatives.
Factoring-in the police commissioner contests with the by-elections, it's easy to see why Mr Miliband is being cautious. There is plenty of voter disenchantment, but it seems to be with all three of the mainstream parties.
In spite of their comparative lack of resources, independents have done well; elected Mayor in Bristol and Commissioner in North Wales, Dorset, and Hampshire, where former Tory minister Michael Mates was defeated.
In Humberside, the best-known face of all, former Labour deputy prime minister John Prescott, was forced into a nail-biting second round count-off, which he lost.
So, most voters didn't care and those who did were grumpy with mainstream politicians; typical mid-term blues, perhaps. But also a big problem for David Cameron who created these police commissioner elections which have brought little comfort to his party.
A Conservative recovery in time for the 2015 General Election remains entirely possible.
But at this mid-point of the parliament, the Governor of the Bank of England says the economy is much weaker than hoped for, Britain is heading towards a major clash with its EU partners over budgets, the press are in full cry against post-Leveson regulation and there are at least two big mid-term votes to go - 2014's European Parliament election and the Scottish referendum vote.
No wonder Tory MPs are restless.
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