Alienation Sparked Historic Scotland Poll
Updated: 12:54am UK, Friday 19 September 2014
By Adam Boulton, Sky News Presenter
The genesis of Scotland's independence vote really lies in the outcome of the 2010 General Election.
The Labour governments under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown broadly reflected how Scots had voted and they restored the Scottish Parliament after a 300-year adjournment.
But in 2010 Scots ended up with a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition Government, although Labour MPs had been elected in 41 out of Scotland's 59 Constituencies.
The Conservatives have just one MP north of the border.
There was a mood of alienation from Westminster politics which was ripe for exploitation.
The Scottish National Party capitalised and in the 2011 elections for the Holyrood parliament they won a remarkable overall majority in spite of a proportional representation voting system - 69 out of 129 seats.
This gave Alex Salmond, the SNP leader and Scotland's First Minister, a clear mandate to hold a referendum on Scotland's future and he began negotiations with the UK Prime Minister with whom authority to hold binding plebiscites ultimately lay.
On October 15, 2012 David Cameron and Mr Salmond signed the Edinburgh Agreement announcing a decisive referendum on Scotland's future.
The agreement gave Mr Salmond most of what he was asking for.
The question would be "Should Scotland be an independent country?" rather than "Should Scotland remain part of the UK?" - giving independence the traditional advantage of being a Yes campaign.
Mr Cameron insisted it should be an all-or-nothing vote by ruling out a second question offering the softer option of further devolution.
Since so-called "devo-max" is now a last-minute offer from the No side anyway, Mr Cameron will face potentially politically fatal recriminations for the way he handled these negotiations should Yes win the day.
But for most of the two years leading up to the referendum, there was a complacent assumption in London that No would prevail.
Even after Mr Salmond published his blueprint, Scotland's Future, last November the opinion polls remained static at around 60% for No and 40% for Yes.
The UK Government decided to frame the referendum as an argument for Scottish voters alone, ignoring the consequences for the rest of the UK.
Mr Cameron refused to engage in TV debates with Mr Salmond, leaving that job to Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor and a Scottish MP.
The Better Together No campaign focused on the possible pitfalls of independence rather than highlighting the advantages of union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
This strategy was greatly aided by a speech from the Governor of the Bank of England this spring, pointing out the difficulties an independent Scotland would have continuing to use the pound sterling as its currency.
The currency question has been the Achilles heel of Mr Salmond's campaign.
Originally, he saw Scotland as a member of the Eurozone but abandoned that after the 2008 financial crisis.
Under his revised plans an independent Scotland would keep the Queen, the pound and most other aspects of the Union as well as membership of Nato and the EU.
Mr Salmond failed to produce compelling evidence that his putative partners would agree to his deals.
But he dismissed the doubters as "scaremongers" in a UK Government-run "Project Fear".
With just 11 days to go until polling, the mood changed dramatically for both sides.
A single opinion poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times put independence in the lead by 51% to 49%.
A shocked Mr Cameron cancelled parliamentary business to lead an emergency delegation to Scotland.
He, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg all hit the campaign trail for No.
In an emotional speech in Glasgow the Prime Minister appealed "head, heart and soul" for Scots to stick with the Union.
A stream of big businesses including Standard Life insurance, RBS and major phone companies warned of dire economic consequences if Scotland went independent.
Backed by a "vow" from the three UK party leaders, Mr Brown swung into action, promising "Scottish Home Rule" if it rejected full independence.
But by now the Yes campaign felt it had momentum behind it and brushed off negative predictions, which seemed to have little impact on the polls.
A record 97% of those eligible to vote, 4.3m people, registered for the referendum.
If Yes could turn them out, victory appeared to be in its grasp.
Yes supporters tended to be younger, poorer and more outspoken than those on the No side.
There were allegations of intimidating behaviour and a "sour atmosphere" according to Mr Darling.
But both he and Mr Salmond promised to accept the outcome even if it meant defeat for their side - and to work to re-unite the divided Scots.
:: Watch live: Scottish referendum coverage on Sky News Sky 501, Virgin Media 602, Freesat 202, Freeview 132.
:: Live coverage is also available on sky.com/news and Sky News for iPad and on your mobile phone.
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