UKIP On Course To Bruise Labour And Tories

By Joey Jones, Deputy Political Editor

Getting a directly elected MP into Westminster for the first time, as UKIP surely will in the form of Douglas Carswell in Clacton-on-Sea, ranks as a sizeable tremor on the party's earthquake scale.

However, it lacks the one element that sows terror in the hearts of UKIP's political opponents - shock value.

The Carswell defection in the dog days of summer silly season really did have David Cameron reaching for the smelling salts, but the fact the former Tory MP will be returned on a UKIP ticket has been priced in from the moment the first opinion pollsters did the rounds of Clacton, if not before.

A Carswell triumph will be a moment of high symbolism nonetheless.

Having an MP in the Commons offers UKIP a valuable platform, and reinforces their confidence that the walls of the Palace of Westminster will eventually crumble under a relentless UKIP siege.

Before Nigel Farage and his troops get too far ahead of themselves, it should be remembered that the party's main achievement in a general election will be a negative one - putting a spanner in other politicians' hopes of comfortable re-election - while they can hope for only a handful of seats at best.

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Gallery: Heywood and Clacton By-Elections

Watch a by-election special on Sky News from 10pm on Thursday
List of candidates for the Heywood and Middleton by-election
List of candidates for the Clacton by-election

Nevertheless, the extent to which the political dynamic has shifted can be measured by the fact that few Westminster politicians now have the temerity to describe a vote for UKIP as a "protest vote".

There is instead a recognition that the disenchantment with mainstream politics on which Mr Farage feeds has to be grappled with as (at the very least) a semi-permanent phenomenon.

In Thursday's other by-election in Heywood and Middleton, UKIP is set to put the frighteners on Labour without making a shattering breakthrough.

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Gallery: Clacton By-Election Candidates

Douglas Carswell, UKIP. Was a Conservative until August when he crossed to Nigel Farage's party. A former businessman, fund manager and Conservative MP. First elected to Clacton in 2005 and returned with a majority of 12,000 in 2010. The 43-year-old first stood against Tony Blair in Sedgefield in 2001.
Andy Graham, Liberal Democrat. The 59-year-old actor and writer founded the Snap Theatre Company and is a former mayor of Bishop's Stortford. He has also set up the ai ai Ltd charity working in the developing world. He brought the stage version of Sense and Sensibility to Clacton's West Cliff Theatre 10 years ago.
Howling 'Laud' Hope, Official Monster Raving Loony Party. The 72-year-old leader of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party since the death of Screaming 'Lord' Sutch in 1999. He was actually jointly elected with his pet cat, Catmando, but Catmando died in 2002.
Charlotte Rose, independent. A 34-year-old former dominatrix now high-class escort and Sex Worker of The Year, who has slept with more than 1,000 men and charges £180 an hour for her services. She is university educated and says her "main policy is about sexual freedom". Her other focus is improving sex education in schools.
Dr Bruce Sizer, independent. The consultant oncologist only entered the contest to get publicity for cancer services in the area and himself admitted he has "no political ambitions". Dr Sizer's campaign headquarters is a beach hut in Walton-on-the-Naze.
Chris Southall, Green Party. Recently took part in a Stand Up To UKIP protest. He is a former potter, computer engineer and drummer who lives in an eco house which is open to the public.
Giles Watling, Conservatives. Best known as Oswald the vicar who married Avaline in the sitcom Bread back in the 1980s. The 61-year-old, an Essex Junior Chamption Archer, is a Conservative councillor on Tendring District Council.
Tim Young, Labour. A leading north Essex councillor, he was born and brought up in Clacton. He is currently leader of the Labour group on Colchester Council and is portfolio holder for planning, community safety and culture. He has a dangerous driving conviction from 2001, when he hit a police officer with his car.

If the party polls close to 30%, that will be unsettling for Ed Miliband, who is coming under significant pressure following a lacklustre conference season.

The focus at these electoral set pieces will first and foremost be on the big winner - UKIP.

But as MPs return to Westminster after conference season the heat is likely to be on an opposition that seems able to do little more than tread water.

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Gallery: Heywood By-Election Candidates

John Bickley, UKIP. Father of two who joined UKIP three years ago. He lived for a short while in Heywood and Middleton and began his career as a laboratory technician before joining EMI Records in the North West and then moving to London. He now runs his own software company. His interests aside from politics include walking.
Iain Gartside, Conservative. Married 39-year-old grew up in Manchester and lives in Bury. He works in financial services helping small businesses to succeed, and is the leader of the Conservative group on Bury Council. He is a Manchester City fan who plays cricket in his spare time.
Abi Jackson, Green Party. Abi was brought up in Middleton and has recently completed a Master's Degree in Psychology at Huddersfield University. She continues to live in the constituency.
Liz McInnes, Labour. A councillor in Rossendale, a few miles outside the constituency, where she lives with her partner Steve and son Sam. She works as a healthcare scientist in the NHS and is a Unite union rep. She beat former BBC presenter Miriam O'Reilly to become candidate.
Anthony Smith, Liberal Democrat. Has lived in Heywood and Middleton for most of his life. He is a father of four and local businessman who lives in Rochdale. He left school at 16, worked on a shop floor, faced redundancy, reskilled and ran his own business. When he was younger he played in a number of brass bands.

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