Pollster Lord Ashcroft has told Sky News in a rare interview that the surge in support for the SNP in Scotland "is real".
It comes a day after a Sky News projection said the nationalist party could increase its number of seats at the General Election from its current six to 53.
The polling also suggested there would be a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party ahead of the Conservatives, and the SNP could hold the balance of power on 8 May.
Lord Ashcroft pointed to last year's Scottish independence referendum, where the SNP picked up 45% of the votes, as evidence of the surge.
He said: "You could say if you voted yes to independence why now wouldn't you vote for the SNP in the Westminster parliament."
The former Tory party treasurer suggested the political centre of gravity in Scotland was more to the left.
He went on: "Who do you want to represent you - Labour who you are not quite sure where they stand on the Scottish issue.
"Or the SNP who you do know where they stand for on Scotland. Therefore one would expect a surge for the SNP."
Lord Ashcroft is currently polling Scottish seats for the first time and the results will be published within days.
The findings may not make happy reading for Labour in Scotland.
He believed the May election was "finely balanced", adding "the concern seems be running that we are in for a hung parliament."
He admitted the "pendulum" was slightly towards Labour leader Ed Miliband over Tory Prime Minister David Cameron but cautioned that there was "such volatility" that that could change at any time.
The rise of Nigel Farage's UKIP was down to both the "arrogance of the Conservatives and the complacency of Labour", according to the peer.
He added: "This was something waiting to happen.
"Quite clearly with the Liberal Democrats going into coalition, you cannot be a protest party in government and expect to come out at the other end of the tunnel the same shape you went into it."
He said that "fragmentation" was the price that the Lib Dems - whose support has slumped - have paid for being in the coalition.
He also argued that for UKIP, a Miliband election win could be the best result for their long-term interests.
Britain may not get a EU referendum under the Labour leader which would give UKIP another five years in which to build their party where they still have Europe as the "bogey" to go for, he claimed.
Lord Ashcroft said "disillusionment" with the two main parties meant they were polling around 60% of the vote, compared with about 90% around 20 years ago.
But he warned that with the rise of the smaller parties, it was mathematically possible for a party to have an overall majority at the election with a national share of the vote in the 20s.
He said if that happened there would be pressure to look at whether 'first-past-the-post' was the appropriate system of government in the UK.
:: Sky looks at the 150 seats that could play a deciding role in May's General Election. Click here for the In The Margins console.
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